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State-Centred but Networked: Recipient States and Project Outcomes in China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Public Policy Studies
Political Organizations and Institutions
Authoritarian Regimes and Democratic Transitions
Xinwei Chen
Monash University
Xinwei Chen
Monash University

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative is often understood as an instrument of Chinese geopolitical influence or state led development finance. These perspectives explain its strategic origins but reveal less about how projects are governed through interactions among multiple actors. Drawing on an original dataset of 606 BRI related projects, 611 actors, and 2,487 interorganizational ties, this article conceptualizes the BRI as a state centred but networked governance system. Policy network analysis shows that Chinese policy banks, government agencies, and state-owned enterprises occupy the structural core, while host governments, commercial banks, private firms, and multilateral organizations remain integral to project governance. Project level models further show that broader actor participation is associated with advancement beyond initial commitment, while host government involvement increases the likelihood of completion. These findings demonstrate that Chinese state authority remains central but operates through interorganizational dependence and coordination rather than unilateral control.