Do ongoing crises reduce support for democracy? A survey experiment in Conflict-Affected Myanmar

This paper examines democracy and crises, focusing on how prolonged political and economic crises influence citizens’ support for democracy in Myanmar. Building on earlier research into democratic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic, it extends the analysis from a temporary public health emergency to a protracted, multidimensional crisis characterized by military rule, armed conflict, economic deterioration, institutional fragmentation, and widespread livelihood insecurity. Since the military coup of February 2021, Myanmar has experienced substantial democratic backsliding, accompanied by rising poverty, high inflation, declining employment opportunities, and pervasive political uncertainty. Myanmar therefore provides an important setting for investigating whether citizens’ commitment to democracy remains resilient when political freedoms, economic survival, personal security, and social stability are simultaneously under threat. Under such conditions, citizens may become more willing to accept authoritarian or quasi-civilian rule if such regimes are perceived as capable of restoring stability or improving economic conditions, or as being repressed by an authoritarian regime. Therefore, this paper explores this possibility through a survey incorporating a vignette experiment. Respondents are presented with a hypothetical scenario describing Myanmar under a three-by-three-by-two design. Three conditions are randomly varied: macroeconomic conditions (good, the same as at present, or bad), political conditions (stability under a fully civilian government, governance under a quasi-civilian regime, or circumstances similar to the present situation), and electoral competition (a competitive election is held or not held). Respondents are then asked to indicate the extent to which they would prefer democracy under each hypothetical scenario. We hypothesize that: (1) respondents will prefer democracy most strongly when economic conditions are good, political stability is maintained under a fully civilian government, and a competitive election is held; and (2) support for democracy will be stronger under a stable, fully civilian government than under quasi-civilian rule or current political conditions, regardless of economic performance. The study expects support for democracy to be strongest when favourable economic conditions coincide with political stability under a fully civilian government and competitive elections. By identifying the conditions under which democratic preferences remain resilient or become conditional, this paper contributes to comparative debates on democratic legitimacy, authoritarian resilience, and citizen behaviour during prolonged crises. It also provides experimental evidence from a conflict-affected and institutionally fragile society that remains underrepresented in research on democratic support.