This paper examines how complex global crises are shaping the dynamics of armed conflicts in the 21st century, within the context of an emerging multipolar world order. Armed conflicts have grown in quantity, duration, complexity and intensity, while at the same time a system of complex global crises—climate change, global health crises, and renewed strategic rivalries—has emerged. This research seeks to analyze two key aspects: first, how these global crises are influencing the transformation of armed conflicts; and second, which conditions or combinations of crises drive changes in conflict dynamics. Utilizing complex systems theory, the study explores how self-organization, non-linearity, and co-evolution within these global crises create feedback loops, contributing to the emergence of new conflict patterns. This paper applies a mixed-methods approach, including Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), to identify the causal pathways between crises and changing conflict dynamics. By scaling the battle-related deaths in armed conflicts between 2010-2025 after they interact with a system of complex global crises this research analyses how global crises can influence the dynamics of armed conflict.
