The October 7, 2023, operation served as a catalytic shock that exposed the multi-decadal structural contraction of Egyptian foreign policy. This paper argues that Egypt has transitioned from a position of historical regional hegemony to that of a constrained, securitized mediator. Utilizing Neo-classical Realism and Role Theory, the study contends that this diminished posture is driven primarily by internal imperatives: the political elite’s prioritization of regime survival, and security, and acute economic vulnerability due to the regime’s policies. Externally, Egypt's traditional geopolitical weight has been superseded by an asymmetric interdependence with rising, highly capitalized GCC powers.
By analyzing two primary post-October 7 case studies—the conflict in Gaza, followed 7th of October, and regional tensions involving Iran—the paper demonstrates that Egyptian foreign policy is no longer governed by an expansionist “National Project”. Instead, it has been subordinated to "transactional diplomacy". The regime strategically leverages regional crises to market its geography as a “security buffer” to the EU, the US and Gulf powers in exchange for political and financial backing. Ultimately, the study concludes that Egypt's contemporary mediation role obscures a fundamental retreat in the state's regional ambitions, reflecting a deliberate subordination of foreign policy to domestic authoritarian consolidation.
