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Do natural hazards affect turnout in national elections?

Electoral Politics and Participation
Quantitative Research Methods
Comparative Politics
Ferran Martinez i Coma
Griffith University
Sarah Birch
Kings College London
Anurug Chakma
Griffith University
Ferran Martinez i Coma
Griffith University

Abstract

Research has largely examined the electoral consequences of specific disasters in individual countries or elections. The findings have been mixed as hazards have been associated with increases, decreases, and no change in participation. In this paper we move beyond single-event studies by providing a global comparative assessment of whether, when, and how natural hazards shape voter turnout in national elections. We argue that hazards may affect participation through both logistical disruption and political mobilisation, but that these effects are likely to vary by hazard type, timing, and national context. Empirically, we analyse national elections from 1945 to 2025, distinguishing between different types of natural hazards, the number of events occurring before an election, and the time elapsed between hazard occurrence and election day. We examine whether turnout differs in elections exposed to hazards, measured across multiple pre-election windows, relative to elections without such exposure. We also compare results across the full post-1945 period and separate pre- and post-2000 samples, given improvements in disaster reporting and data completeness over time. The paper contributes a systematic comparative account of the relationship between natural hazards and electoral participation, clarifying whether apparently contradictory findings in existing case studies reflect broader patterns or context-specific effects.