AUKUS has sparked significant discourse over its effects for Indo-Pacific security, East Asian geopolitical rivalry, and the international nuclear non-proliferation framework. Nonetheless, its implications for South Asian security received somewhat less academic attention. This study analyses the impact of AUKUS on India’s quest for nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and evaluates the impacts of this advancement for regional security dynamics. AUKUS has served as a strategic catalyst rather than a direct source of capability transfer. While China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean provided a strategic justification for India’s enduring interest in SSNs, the mere strategic demand did not lead to consistent advancement. Technological limitations, political prudence, and the sensitivity associated with naval nuclear propulsion persisted in constraining the speed of India’s submarine modernisation.
The study asserts that AUKUS altered the environment by redefining the political and normative framework surrounding the comprehension and justification of naval nuclear propulsion. By implementing safeguard exemptions under Paragraph 14 of INFCIRC/153, the agreement diminished enduring political constraints regarding naval nuclear propulsion and set a significant international precedent. This normative shift augmented the strategic legitimacy of India’s SSN development, diminished the political costs linked to the pursuit of sophisticated underwater capabilities, and expanded India’s strategic options. It specifically enhanced India’s standing by diversifying suppliers, broadening strategic negotiation prospects within the Indo-Pacific security framework, and revitalising domestic initiatives for underwater modernisation.
Utilising the concept of security dilemma, the study argues that implications of AUKUS reach far beyond India’s naval development. India’s burgeoning SSN development, while internally rationalised as a defensive measure against China’s increasing maritime presence, has heightened threat perceptions in both China and Pakistan. China increasingly perceives India’s submarine capabilities in the context of AUKUS, the Quad, and the growing India–US strategic partnership, whilst Pakistan regards them as a threat to maritime deterrence and the regional military equilibrium. Conflicting perceptions exacerbate action-reaction dynamics, strategic mistrust, and military rivalry within the maritime domain.
The study thus explores that AUKUS has indirectly exacerbated the maritime security dilemma in South Asia. As India, China, and Pakistan enhance their submarine capabilities, the region confronts escalating risks of crisis instability due to strategic ambiguity, intensified apprehensions regarding deterrent survivability, and mounting pressure for competitive military adaptation. The study demonstrates how changes in international legitimacy can transform regional security dynamics without direct transfers of capabilities, thereby enhancing comprehension of the indirect strategic ramifications of AUKUS and its implications for South Asian maritime security and the future of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
